Oil Prices Rise for a Fourth Consecutive Day on Iran Supply Disruption Risks

Oil prices continued to climb in Asian trading on Tuesday, extending gains for a fourth straight session as concerns mounted over potential supply disruptions linked to escalating unrest in Iran.

In early trading, Brent crude futures for March delivery rose 0.4% to $64.10 per barrel, while U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude futures also gained 0.4% to $59.70 per barrel.

The Brent contract had reached a more than seven-week high in the previous session, while WTI advanced to its highest level in about a month.

Iran Unrest Drives Supply Risk Premium

Iran, a major oil producer within OPEC, is experiencing its most severe wave of anti-government protests in years. The unrest has been marked by widespread violence and reports of significant casualties as security forces intensify their crackdown on demonstrators.

U.S. President Donald Trump has warned that military action could follow if Iranian authorities continue using lethal force against protesters.

Trump has also announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on any country “doing business” with Iran, a move intended to further isolate Tehran economically.

China remains a key buyer of Iranian crude, and market participants are closely watching whether the threat of secondary tariffs will be enough to deter continued Chinese purchases of Iranian oil.

Trump is expected to meet with senior advisers to discuss possible responses to developments in Iran, keeping geopolitical uncertainty elevated and supporting oil prices.

Russian Export Infrastructure Also Under Pressure

Supply risks are not confined to the Middle East. Russia’s oil export infrastructure has faced repeated attacks amid the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces have targeted Russian oil facilities and export hubs, including the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal near Novorossiysk, a critical outlet for crude exports.

Exports of Kazakh oil through the CPC terminal are expected to face significant pressure this month. Shipments are projected to fall to between 800,000 and 900,000 barrels per day, roughly 45% below initial expectations, tightening regional supply flows.

Venezuela Prepares to Return to Export Markets

At the same time, another OPEC producer, Venezuela, is preparing to re-enter global oil export markets after a period of disruption.

Following recent political developments in the country and the removal of President Nicolás Maduro, President Trump said last week that Venezuela would transfer up to 50 million barrels of oil to the United States. While this could eventually add supply back into the global market, the timing and scale of any increase remain uncertain.

For now, heightened geopolitical risks across multiple regions continue to underpin oil prices, outweighing near-term prospects of additional supply.