A bear market for stocks could be coming. After a nine-year bull market, there is always the chance that a bear market could be right around the corner. The problem is, it can be hard to know WHEN it’s coming, how long it will last, or how severely it will impact stock prices. So it’s always safe to say that a bear market is coming…eventually. And it’s always good to know some of the precursors and ways to hedge.
There is no reason to be alarmed. Not only can you survive the next bear market, you can even prosper from it. Below are some techniques you can use to either reduce your portfolio losses, or even to make some money off the big bad bear. (For related reading, see article: Adapt to a Bear Market.)
By definition, according to Investopedia, a bear market is a “market condition in which the prices of securities are falling, and widespread pessimism causes the negative sentiment to be self-sustaining. As investors anticipate losses in a bear market and selling continues, pessimism only grows. Although figures can vary, for many, a downturn of 20% or more in multiple broad market indexes, such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500), over at least a two-month period, is considered an entry into a bear market.”
The dilemma is that when stocks begin to fall, we never know whether it will be a simple 5% or 10% correction, or a deeper decline into bear market territory. If you wait too long and stocks rise again, you’ve missed an opportunity to buy on a dip and won’t profit from the bounce back in prices. But if you are too quick to pull the trigger, you may see your new stock purchases continue to decline further. It can be tricky to identify the best timing in these cases and to manage active trading at the onset of a bear market.
A 10% correction is not the problem. Most investors can stomach that. It’s the 78% correction, as we saw in the Nasdaq tech bubble bursting from 2000 to 2002, or the 54% lost by the Dow between 2007 and 2009. And every time there’s a 10% correction, the financial cable shows haul out the usual Wall Street cheerleaders to calm the public with, “Hold on, don’t panic, buy more.”
Many times they’ll suggest buying dividend stocks as a hedge. But if you go all in when the market falls 10% and then it falls another 40% or 50%, that 5% dividend is often a very small consolation in light of portfolio destruction.
So then what can we do to really cushion our losses, and even make some money in a bear market? Here are four strategies for overcoming the next bear market:
Strategy 1: The 401 (k)
One lesson from the bear market of 2007-2009 is that if you buy index funds at regular intervals through a 401(k), you will prosper when the market finally does rebound. Those who used this strategy didn’t know whether the bear would end in December 2007, June 2008, or as it finally did, in March 2009.
People told me their 401(k) was cut in half by the time the bear market ended, but all of the shares that were bought on the way down became profitable when the market finally turned around and climbed higher. By 2015, those who hung in there have made enormous profits from the cheaper shares purchased during the downturn, plus company matching, plus all of their money that they got back (and then more profit) from the shares bought before the peak in 2006-07. So it’s best not to go all in at any one time, but just to keep investing small amounts at regular intervals.
Strategy 2: Buying short and long term puts
If you feel that a bear market is developing and have substantial long positions in the market, another useful strategy is to buy inexpensive short and long-term puts on the major indices. Keep in mind trading derivatives often comes with margin requirements and usually requires special access privileges with your brokerage account.
A put is an option that represents rights for 100 shares, has a fixed time length before it expires worthless and has a specified price for selling. If you buy puts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq and the market declines, your puts will gain in value as these indexes are falling. Because options increase or decrease by a much larger percentage than stocks, even a small number of put contracts can offset your long stock position losses. As expiration is approaching you have the option to sell your puts on the open market or exercise and give up the shares. (See also: Put Option Basics and Prices Plunging? Buy A Put!)
Strategy 3: Selling “naked” puts
Selling a “naked” put involves selling the puts that others want to buy, in exchange for cash premiums. In a bear market, there should be no shortage of interested buyers. When you sell a put contract, your hope is that the put expires worthless at or above its strike price. If it does, you profit by keeping the entire premium, and the transaction ends. But if the stock price falls below the strike price and the holder of the put exercises the option, you are forced to take delivery of the shares with a loss.
The premium does give you some downside protection. For example, let’s say you sell a July 21st put with a $10 strike, and the premium paid to you is .50. This gives you a cushion of down to $9.50 for which to maintain break-even.
With naked puts you are on the receiving end of a derivative transaction so the best strategy can be to keep selling short-term puts on solid companies that you wouldn’t mind owning if you have to, especially if they pay dividends. Even in a bear market, there will be periods where stock prices rise, giving you profits from the puts.
Strategy 4: Finding the assets that increase in price
I find it helpful to research past bear markets, in order to see which stocks, sectors, or assets actually went up or at least held their own when all around them the market was tanking. Sometimes the precious metals, like gold and silver, outperform. Food and personal care stocks, often called “defensive stocks”, usually do well. There are times when bonds go up as stocks decline. Sometimes a particular sector of the market, such as utilities, real estate, or health care, might do well, even if other sectors are losing value.
Many financial websites publish sector performances for different time frames, and you can easily see which sectors are currently outperforming the others. Begin to allocate some of your cash in those sectors, as once a sector does well, it usually performs well for a long period of time. Bear markets can also have different catalysts so this strategy can also help investors allocate accordingly.
The Bottom Line
So as you can see, we do not have to fear the big bad bear market, but rather by employing some alternative strategies, we can do quite well during those times when many others are suffering major losses to their portfolios. (For related reading, see article: Digging Deeper Into Bull And Bear Markets.)