Standard Chartered Says 2026 Could Be Ethereum’s Breakout Year, Sets New 2030 Target

Ethereum may be approaching a pivotal moment, with 2026 shaping up to be a year of renewed strength as its relative fundamentals improve and set the stage for outperformance against Bitcoin, according to Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick.

Kendrick noted that weaker-than-expected performance from Bitcoin has weighed on dollar-denominated digital asset outlooks overall, prompting downward revisions to Ethereum’s absolute price forecasts for the 2026–2028 period.

However, when viewed on a relative basis, Ethereum’s outlook has strengthened. Kendrick said the ETH/BTC relationship is expected to gradually recover toward levels last seen in 2021, reflecting improving structural dynamics for Ethereum.

Several factors are cited as underpinning this more constructive view.

One key support comes from continued accumulation by Bitmine Immersion Technologies, the largest Ethereum-focused digital asset treasury company. While inflows into digital asset ETFs have stalled and most corporate treasury buying has slowed, Bitmine’s ongoing ETH purchases are seen as giving Ethereum a relative edge.

Ethereum’s entrenched position across major growth areas of the digital asset ecosystem is another pillar of support. Kendrick highlighted Ethereum’s leadership in stablecoins, tokenised real-world assets and decentralised finance, describing these segments as long-term structural growth drivers for the sector.

Network development also features prominently in the outlook. Plans to expand Ethereum’s layer-one throughput by a factor of ten over the next two to three years appear to be progressing, with recent upgrades already delivering measurable increases in capacity.

“Analysis shows that higher throughput translates into higher market capitalisation,” Kendrick said, pointing to a direct link between network efficiency and long-term valuation.

Regulatory developments could further bolster Ethereum’s prospects. The potential passage of the U.S. CLARITY Act, which aims to establish a clearer regulatory framework for digital assets, is expected to be supportive for the broader sector and particularly for Ethereum if it enables the next phase of decentralised finance adoption.

The U.S. Senate is scheduled to review the legislation on January 15, with passage possible during the first quarter. Kendrick expects approval of the bill, combined with solid performance in U.S. equity markets, to drive Bitcoin to a new all-time high in the first half of the year.

While the end-2026 price forecast for Ethereum was lowered to $7,500, Kendrick significantly raised his longer-term outlook. He introduced a new price target of $40,000 for Ethereum by the end of 2030.

Under his projections, Ethereum is expected to rise to $15,000 by the end of 2027 and $22,000 by the end of 2028, before reaching $30,000 in 2029 and advancing further the following year.

For Bitcoin, Kendrick forecasts prices of $150,000 in 2026, $225,000 in 2027 and $300,000 in 2028, with additional gains projected to $400,000 in 2029 and $500,000 by 2030.